Solar Energy Production Calculator
Estimate how much electricity your solar system will generate — daily, monthly, annually, and over its full lifetime. Accounts for real-world efficiency losses and long-term panel degradation.
About This Calculator
The Solar Energy Production Calculator estimates the actual electricity output of a solar system over time, accounting for the real-world factors that reduce production below nameplate capacity. A perfectly efficient 8 kW system in full sun would produce 8 kWh per hour, but real systems lose 15–25% to inverter conversion, wiring resistance, heat, dust, and panel mismatch. This calculator applies your system efficiency factor to give a realistic production number you can compare against your actual electricity consumption.
Degradation rate is a critical but often overlooked factor in long-term production estimates. Most tier-1 solar panels degrade at 0.3–0.7% per year, meaning a system producing 10,000 kWh in year one will produce roughly 8,800 kWh by year 25 at a 0.5% degradation rate. Over a 25-year lifetime this means total cumulative production is about 11% less than if the panels never degraded. Premium panels from manufacturers like LG, Panasonic, and SunPower typically carry 0.25–0.4% annual degradation guarantees — worth asking about when comparing quotes.
To find your local peak sun hours, use NREL's PVWatts Calculator (pvwatts.nrel.gov) — enter your address and look for the "Solar Resource" value in kWh/m²/day. The Southwest U.S. averages 5.5–7.0 peak sun hours; the Northeast averages 3.5–4.5. System efficiency depends on your roof orientation and tilt: a south-facing roof at 30° tilt in a mild climate might achieve 85% efficiency, while a shaded or east/west-facing roof might only reach 70%. Your installer's simulation software accounts for these specifics more precisely.
Knowing your expected production allows you to cross-check installer proposals, verify utility net metering credits, and plan battery storage sizing. It is also the input that drives every financial calculation — savings, ROI, and payback all depend on an accurate production estimate as their foundation.
Calculations based on NREL solar modeling data and industry-standard assumptions, built and maintained by the independent SolarToolsOnline research team.
Estimates only — not financial, tax, or legal advice. Verify important results with a licensed solar installer or financial professional before making decisions.
Related calculators: Solar Panel Count Calculator, Solar System Size Calculator, Solar Degradation Calculator, Electricity Offset Calculator, Solar Panel Efficiency Calculator